After over seven years in this new world, a number of issues have become clear and need to be confronted and/or dealt with. I can propose only some solutions at this time, while others need to be explored and decided upon within the near future. Dealing with, they all do require, however.

Religious Matters

We are, unfortunately, a serious number of priests short. We can assume that Ubii is on the way to be re-established and Avernii has a reasonable foothold. Eraviscii has at least some representation. The rest ... not so much.

Further more, it appears that there will be no new Paladins available for at least 15-20 years, which is a further, rather fundamental problem, in itself.

To adress this and speed up the increase of numbers, we should consider the following points:

• Building of a strong Lay population (underway but may need to be firmed up)
• Urgent identification of lay population suitable to be inducted as priests, and their introduction as soon as possible.
• Alternatively: consider training our priest(s) and paladins as pantheonic, rather than serving a single god (!!).
• Paladins should be training at least one apprentice at all times.
• Paladin training needs to be re-worked, ensuring a footing in magics ar early as possible. Divine Magic and Martial Skills should be taught in parallel.
• There amy be an argument to concentrate Paladins towards the practical application of magic, rather than theoretical processes (spells rather than items).
• An approach that emphasises specialisation may be required, if we want to have any hope to ever arrive at previous capabilities.
• Parma Divinicus should be taught to Paladin recruits at the earliest opportunity and the general army during downtime.

Mages & Druids

The situation with the mages is far less problematic as with the Religious caste. Our rate of active mages is above norm for the population and there are two apprentices in training. There is sufficient capacity to train at least one more apprentice should a gifted child be found and the first full apprentice should pass harrowing within the next 6 years.

Mages (as well as paladins) are what currently provides our people with an edge (of sorts), and hence we need to ensure we raise the numbers sooner rather than later. Interestingly, the current apprentices are being extremely well trained and will probably reach a capability comparable to their teachers just out of gauntlet by year 10-12 of their training.

• Teach Parma Magica very early on during apprenticeship. This will permit/simplify fostering, combined training etc.
• Introduce the position of "Senior Apprentice" (>10 years of training), allowing them to take on more fundamental roles and tasks in the community while ending their apprenticeship. His might even be a step towards taking on multiple apprentices at the same time in a manner that appears similar to the approach the Elves seem to take.
• Pair apprentices early on with one or two shield grogs and possibly a Paladin in training (if available), to ensure familiarity and trust within a team.
• Increase the use of fostering and combined training between teachers to improve training efficiency and resulting capabilities (Karath on steroids)
• Begin the sharing of information and skills with the dwarves in this area.
• Once we have Manses up and running, allow the Dwarves access to the common vis stores, in the same manner that our mages have (i.e. make an argument for each use to the core council). It seems only fair, given we have 'extracted' large amounts of vis from them...

Developmental & Military

This is something that needs to be on the forefront of our thinking...

Ultimately, we need to decide if our people do wish to return to some form of relevance and influence over the next few centuries, or if we wish to hide away and not be bothered in any form.

In the second case, our best option is to find a small island or two before the coast that is big enough to hold a small town (i.e. not very big at all), move everyone there and retain only some small agricultural presence on the mainland. As long as our population remains stable, this should be relatively manageable and we stay out of everyone's way.

If we desire some form of control over our own future and a position of self determination and influence, the seeds for this must be sown now! The remaining races seem to be distinctly slower in their population development than humans, which means that we can settle larger areas of land in a fraction of time compared to the elves or the dwarves. This does, however, mean that we need to begin to move into certain points of control over the next 50 years. It will require a taking over fortresses and old cities wherever possible, specifically at this point, the old Scarlett Fortress, Elottis, Dur Katlimu and at least one of the remaining northern fortresses (The Emerald Fortress springs to mind since it is the main access point to the mountains. 

While the dwarves will be looking inward for the foreseeable future and are likely to be not a serious hazard, it appears that the Elves have significantly regrouped and re-organised to be considered a significant influence again. A large proportion of effort therefore needs to go towards appearing non-threatening to the elves and establishing alliances, while fiding out more of what is going on in Finsuran. 

Hence, points of attention need to be:

• Identification and (quiet) development of fallback positions for the civilian population. (see the 'island' suggestion above)
• improvement and enlargement of the military. Some fo this needs developing in the open (esp. the development of the militia), but some of this should be happening quietly at the Scarlett Fortress, w/o the Elves (and the external dwarves) noticing if it can be avoided.
• Ultimately, within at maximum 5 years, we should have standing troops of 100-150 and ideally professionally trained troops as 'hidden reservists' (working as farmers and professionals) of at least the same number. With a bit of care the 'hidden troops' can be rotated about to make them less obvious (i.e. locate them at Riverside or in the farming areas around the Scarlett Fortress). It might even be desirable to quietly develop a small fort in the DMZ between the Lizards and the Minotaurs to train and develop our scout and ranger troops.
• A strong seafaring culture is needed, with the development of a (admittedly very small) Navy within 10 years. Ultimately, we need to make sure that the majority of our population is at least comfortable on a boat or ship. As part of schooling, every child should spend some time working with the sailors/fishermen. This way, a fast withdrawal can be undertaken with a minimum of upheaval.

Population Development

A very Q&D population development model is shown below, utilising a Lifetime fertility rate of 2.5, 3.5 and 4.5 children and an average lifespan of 65 years. As a note, the age pyramid at 2.5 children hits some serious deformation after 60 years. Assumed infant mortality is about 58/1000 births (probably OK for middle ages and limits on healthcare even if magical support is available). [Note: This is modelled on Peru with starting data from 1990. The overall mix of 3rd world country but with a 2nd world healthcare system is probably not miles off...]

What this shows is that for decent expansion, we need to increase birth rates, reduce infant mortality and improve life expectancy... none of which are easy or quick. Infant mortality has likely the lowest impact, but is relatively easily dealt with by providing a few more midwives, etc. A quick run suggests cutting infant mortality to 20/1000 will provide a population increase of about 600.

Life expectancy is much harder to deal with and I haven't played with that data yet.

Fertility rate is likely to have the most impact, although this may involve a cultural change and a social change. I'd be inclined to say that a fertility rate of 2.5 is probably too low and will lead to stagnation, around 4 would probably be normal for a 'magically developed' medieval type nation. I don't know if larger families are an option?

<tbc>